TOURISM QUALITATIVE FORECASTING SCENARIO BUILDING THROUGH THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis

This paper systematically reviews empirical studies looking at the effectiveness of the Delphi technique, and provides a critique of this research. Findings suggest that Delphi groups outperform statistical groups (by 12 studies to two with two ‘ties’) and standard interacting groups (by five studies to one with two ‘ties’), although there is no consistent evidence that the technique outperform...

Qualitative scenario building for post - carbon cities

Delphi and Long-range Forecasting

Except for the articles at the end of the abstract section, copies of the publications listed here can be ordered through RAND’s Distribution Services (see the form at the end of the bibliography). National Book Network (NBN) distributes to the library and trade market most RAND monographs, books, briefings, conference proceedings, and testimony published by RAND since January 1995, as well as ...

Time-series Scenario Forecasting

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some information. We would ideally have a way to query the posterior probability of the entire time-series given the predictive variables, or at a minimum, be able to dr...

Qualitative Study of utilizingFinancial Instruments in Banking Crisis Management for Iranian banking system (using Delphi technique)

International standards as well as global experience show that overcoming banking crises requires a wide range of financial instruments/methods that can be used for bankchr('39')s recovery without using public funding.The main question of the present article is to identify these instruments/methods and to examine their use in the case of state-owned and privatized banks in Iran according to loc...